Traffic forecast
A separate capability from perception: one hour ahead speed and congestion at 20 monitored locations, trained on a week of live traffic observations joined to weather, and evaluated on a chronological holdout against baselines it must beat to be trusted.
Against its baselines
| Target, one hour ahead | Model error | Persistence error | Hour mean error | Beats both |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| current speed | 2.78 mph | 3.22 mph | 2.74 mph | No |
| congestion ratio | 0.108 | 0.132 | 0.110 | Yes |
The honest reading
Congestion beats both baselines. Speed does not yet beat the hour of day
mean on one week of data, and the tooling reports that plainly. The value
of a forecast is its margin over what you already know.
Held out window, predicted against actual
| Location | Speed, predicted | Speed, actual | Congestion, predicted | Congestion, actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I-66 Exit 53 | 34.9 | 36.7 | 0.89 | 0.88 |
| I-395 & Seminary Rd Interchange | 21.8 | 24.9 | 0.98 | 1.11 |
| Route 28 & Waxpool Rd | 33.6 | 34.8 | 0.97 | 0.90 |
| 11th St Bridge Approach DC | 25.8 | 20.5 | 1.01 | 0.85 |
| Dulles Greenway Toll Plaza | 34.9 | 34.8 | 0.97 | 0.90 |
| Route 50 & Stonecroft Blvd | 28.9 | 25.5 | 0.95 | 0.91 |
| New York Ave & West Virginia Ave | 14.9 | 11.8 | 0.74 | 0.54 |
| Duke St & Van Dorn St Alexandria | 55.3 | 55.3 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Wisconsin Ave & Western Ave DC | 14.3 | 13.7 | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| Route 7 & Baron Cameron Ave | 33.8 | 34.8 | 0.97 | 0.90 |